In the era of the two consecutive
largest contracts ever signed in the history of Major League Baseball, Bryce
Harper’s and Mike Trout’s whopping 12-year,
$430 million extension, nobody seems to be able to find the money for
perhaps baseball’s most dominant relief pitcher of recent years, Craig Kimbrel.
It’s not like the market has been
cruel to relievers, either. According to WAR, wins above replacement, Kimbrel tied
for fourth among available free agent relievers this season. That is not to say
he was fourth best, as there is an argument to be made that his career numbers
make him the best closer in baseball, but it is very clear he is in the upper,
upper echelon of free agent relief pitchers. All four pitchers tied to or
ranked above him have already been signed to multi-year deals by teams, and all
got signed relatively early in the free agent process.
The bar for Kimbrel’s contract was
set as soon as reliever Aroldis
Chapman signed a 5-year, $86 million dollar contract in 2016. That places
Kimbrel’s per season contract value at roughly $17 million per year, on par
with Chapman, who had comparable stats in 2018
Most of his fellow 2019 free agent
relievers, who ranked near/above him in WAR, all received contracts north of
$10 million per season. While that may seem significantly lower than what
Kimbrel demands, it’s important to note that while those pitchers are excellent
mid-game relievers, nobody has a closer track record like Craig Kimbrel’s over
the past 10 years or so.
The closer is the second most
important pitcher in any given baseball game. If you do not have a guy to
consistently and efficiently close out close games, it is going to be
incredibly hard to compete in the major league’s over the course of a 162 game
season.
There are reports that Kimbrel is
willing to sit out the entire 2019 season if his contract demands are not met,
and the price tag does not seem like it will significantly drop any time soon.
While the Red Sox have predictably
fallen out of the race to sign him, as they have other massive contracts
looming on the horizon, it would be shocking if some team missing a piece from
contending does not take the gamble on a world class closer.