In the era of the two consecutive largest contracts ever signed in the history of Major League Baseball, Bryce Harper’s and Mike Trout’s whopping 12-year, $430 million extension, nobody seems to be able to find the money for perhaps baseball’s most dominant relief pitcher of recent years, Craig Kimbrel.
It’s not like the market has been cruel to relievers, either. According to WAR, wins above replacement, Kimbrel tied for fourth among available free agent relievers this season. That is not to say he was fourth best, as there is an argument to be made that his career numbers make him the best closer in baseball, but it is very clear he is in the upper, upper echelon of free agent relief pitchers. All four pitchers tied to or ranked above him have already been signed to multi-year deals by teams, and all got signed relatively early in the free agent process.
The bar for Kimbrel’s contract was set as soon as reliever Aroldis Chapman signed a 5-year, $86 million dollar contract in 2016. That places Kimbrel’s per season contract value at roughly $17 million per year, on par with Chapman, who had comparable stats in 2018
Most of his fellow 2019 free agent relievers, who ranked near/above him in WAR, all received contracts north of $10 million per season. While that may seem significantly lower than what Kimbrel demands, it’s important to note that while those pitchers are excellent mid-game relievers, nobody has a closer track record like Craig Kimbrel’s over the past 10 years or so.
The closer is the second most important pitcher in any given baseball game. If you do not have a guy to consistently and efficiently close out close games, it is going to be incredibly hard to compete in the major league’s over the course of a 162 game season.
There are reports that Kimbrel is willing to sit out the entire 2019 season if his contract demands are not met, and the price tag does not seem like it will significantly drop any time soon.
While the Red Sox have predictably fallen out of the race to sign him, as they have other massive contracts looming on the horizon, it would be shocking if some team missing a piece from contending does not take the gamble on a world class closer.
